Winning Dog July 1 2026 · $100 prize

// the chalkboard scene

The Eduardo Saverin formula.

Eduardo's chalkboard equation is real — it's Arpad Elo's rating system, used by the World Chess Federation since 1970. Plug in two ratings, pick a winner, watch the math run.

// expected score of A vs B

Eₐ = 1 / (1 + 10^((Rᵦ − Rₐ) / 400))

// new rating (Sₐ = 1 if won, 0 if lost)

R′ₐ = Rₐ + K · (Sₐ − Eₐ)

K = 32

// elo.simulate()

Dog A / Rₐ

expected score
0.5000
new rating
1416
Δ
+16

Dog B / Rᵦ

expected score
0.5000
new rating
1384
Δ
-16

// expected outcome

A 50.0%50.0% B

$ Eₐ = 1 / (1 + 10^((14001400) / 400)) = 0.5000

$ Eᵦ = 1 − Eₐ = 0.5000

$ R′ₐ = 1400 + 32 · (10.5000) = 1416 (+16)

$ R′ᵦ = 1400 + 32 · (00.5000) = 1384 (-16)